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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."