🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.